RESEARCH BULLETIN · SEP 10 2026
Measuring the rise of machine cognition.
Axon Labs is an independent institute measuring, scaling and interrogating frontier AI systems. This bulletin collects our live training telemetry, benchmark curves and interpretability findings — updated as the runs progress.
The reasoning climb
Frontier systems are closing the gap with expert humans on the hardest closed-form evaluations. We re-score every checkpoint under identical decoding settings.
- MMLU
- GPQA-Diamond
- HumanEval
FIG. 1 — ACCURACY ON THREE CANONICAL EVALUATIONS. HOVER LEGEND TO ISOLATE · MOVE CURSOR FOR VALUES.
Bigger compute, smaller loss
Loss keeps falling as compute grows — a clean power law with no visible bend through 10²⁶ FLOP. The second curve is the one that matters to everyone else: the price of intelligence.
- Slope α ≈ 0.076 for loss vs. training compute
- No saturation observed up to 10²⁶ FLOP
- Inference price fell ≈150× since 2022
- Compute-optimal frontier keeps shifting right
FIG. 2 — VALIDATION LOSS VS TRAINING COMPUTE. MARKERS: PUBLIC CHECKPOINTS + AXON-1.
FIG. 3 — COST PER 1M FRONTIER-QUALITY OUTPUT TOKENS, NORMALIZED BY CAPABILITY.
Opening the black box
We train sparse autoencoders on internal activations to recover the features models actually use, then trace the circuits that bind them.
Fig. 4 renders live attention flow from layer 24 of AXON-1 while it solves a planning task — each pulse is a head reallocating weight toward a token it considers evidence. Below: the current experiment log.
- EXP-128Sparse autoencoders at 34M featuresΔ +12.4%RUNNING
- EXP-121Circuit tracing: induction heads87% mappedRUNNING
- EXP-132Activation steering: honesty vectorσ 0.91REVIEW
- EXP-117Feature splitting in residual streamp < .001REPLICATED
- EXP-109Entropy floors & calibrationr = .84REPLICATED
FIG. 4 — ATTENTION FLOW, 16×16 TOKEN WINDOW. BRIGHT CELLS = HIGH WEIGHT. RETARGETS EVERY ~2.4S.
The physics of scale
Frontier runs are now municipal-scale consumers. We publish power, water and heat figures with every model card.
FIG. 5 — CURRENT CLUSTER DRAW DURING RUN-4213.
FIG. 6 — FRONTIER PARAMETER COUNT, 2019–2026. BAR HEIGHT IS LOG₁₀-SCALED.
Selected papers
Peer-reviewed and preprint output from the last two research cycles.
- arXiv:2604.01882Emergent Planning in Autoregressive Transformers at Depth 96Kovács A., Lindqvist M., Okafor T., et al.Reasoning04 · 2026→
- arXiv:2602.11407Sparse Autoencoders Reveal Composable World ModelsIbarra S., Chen W., Novák P.Interpretability02 · 2026→
- arXiv:2511.20931Latent Chain-of-Thought Compresses Reasoning 11×Okafor T., Almeida R.Efficiency11 · 2025→
- arXiv:2508.04415Compute-Optimal Distillation under Power ConstraintsLindqvist M., Sato H., Kovács A.Scaling08 · 2025→
- arXiv:2410.33268Attention Entropy as a Predictor of Downstream CalibrationNovák P., Ibarra S.Evaluation10 · 2024→
- arXiv:2403.09912Thermodynamic Bounds on Inference EfficiencyChen W., Almeida R., Sato H.Theory03 · 2024→
“We treat interpretability as an empirical science — every capability gets a circuit diagram.”
Dr. Ada Kovács — Research Director, Axon Labs